Fitch downgrades global GDP forecast due to pandemic-related setbacks

Fitch Ratings has trimmed its outlook for global economic recovery for 2021, citing supply-chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic that is still affecting many countries.

The world’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 6% in the current year, according to the agency’s Global Economic Outlook report for September. The new figure is down from Fitch’s 6.3% forecast made in June.

“Supply constraints are limiting the pace of recovery,” the report says. “A greater share of demand growth is being reflected in price increases and US inflation forecasts have been revised up again.”

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Fitch lowered its forecast for the US economy to 6.2%, from 6.8% made in June, while China’s 2021 growth expectation was trimmed to 8.1%, from 8.4% amid a property-market slowdown that is weighing on domestic demand.

Meanwhile, the growth forecast for the Eurozone in the current year was revised up to 5.2%, from 5%.

“Progress with vaccine rollout is limiting the impact of renewed increases in coronavirus cases on economic activity in Europe and, to a slightly lesser extent, in the US,” the agency stated. “But virus dynamics are influencing growth more heavily where vaccination rates remain low. The pandemic is still constraining labor supply.”

Fitch analysts expect global supply constraints and inflation pressures to ease in 2022.

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