International rating agency S&P has improved its outlook for Russia’s GDP growth this year to 4% from its previous forecast of 3.7%, according to a survey released on Tuesday.
The document, focusing on emerging markets, also gave a forecast for Russia’s GDP in 2022 and 2023, with the agency’s analysts expecting the country’s economy to grow by 2.6% and 2% in the next two years, respectively.
The agency sets Russia’s inflation at 6.1% in 2021, but predicts it to drop to 4.2% next year. According to the survey, the country’s central bank key interest rate will reach 7% per annum in 2021, up from the current 6.75%.
Analysts expect Russia’s ruble exchange rate against the US currency to stop at 72 rubles per dollar at the end of the year, but to gradually weaken to 77.5 rubles per dollar by 2024.
The unemployment rate in the country is expected to be 4.9% this year, but fall to 4.6% in three years’ time.
The agency also gave an outlook for the emerging countries in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, predicting an upward trend in GDP growth throughout, primarily driven by increased consumption and exports. However, analysts noted that inflation in European states with emerging markets would continue to rise, pressured by higher fuel and food prices and supply chain disruptions as the result of accelerating economic growth. The agency warned that the two main risks to economic growth emerging economies are facing include inadequate vaccination and a faster-than-expected normalization of US monetary policy.
Fitch ratings agency also recently improved its forecast for Russia’s economic growth in 2021, with a slightly higher figure of 4.3%. Meanwhile, according to a recent statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the country’s economy has this year completely overcome the economic decline caused by last year’s Covid-19 pandemic.
Trade turnover between Russia and China has grown by a third since January, according to Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development, which expects further growth this year.
“By the end of the year, there is every chance to reach a historical maximum [in trade turnover with China],” the head of the ministry, Maxim Reshetnikov, said on Wednesday at a meeting of the Russian-Chinese subcommittee on trade and economic cooperation.
Reshetnikov praised the steady confidence Chinese companies have put in the Russian market, shown by prolonged economic activity and the launch of new projects even in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. The ministry plans to send four of its representatives to China to work in the Russian trade mission and promote cooperation with emphasis on the digital economy and sustainable development.
Among the issues discussed at the meeting were the restoration of supplies of Russian fish products to China, ensuring uninterrupted export cargoes crossing the Russian-Chinese border by land, and expanding cooperation in agricultural trade.
“We are interested in the implementation of new large projects – the first Russian-Chinese insurance company, the construction of additional capacities of the terminal for receiving and transshipment of liquefied petroleum gas and propylene in Manchuria,” Reshetnikov said.
According to China’s customs administration, trade turnover with Russia at the end of 2020 dropped by 2.9% in annual terms and amounted to $107.76 billion. However, in the pre-crisis years, the indicator grew steadily, rising gradually from $69.52 billion at the end of 2016 to $110.75 billion in 2019. Both countries plan to get back on course as soon as possible, with the goal of increasing the volume of bilateral trade to $200 billion per year.
The price of natural gas in Europe surged above $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters for the second day in a row on Wednesday after adjusting to $950 the night before, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data shows.
The cost of November futures on the TTF hub in the Netherlands has so far increased to about $1,020 per 1,000 cubic meters, while the cost of October futures stood at about $1,010 per 1,000 cubic meters.
The overall rise in gas prices since the start of Wednesday’s trading session was about 6% by 7:00 GMT.
On Tuesday, gas prices exceeded the $1,000 level for the first time in history. The cost of October futures jumped 11% at one point to nearly $1,040.
Experts at the Fitch rating agency expect the price of gas to continue to grow and break new records if the current shortage of the commodity on the European market is not curbed ahead of the upcoming winter.
Analysts attribute the price hike to the post-pandemic increase in demand for natural gas combined with underfilled gas storage facilities in Europe. Europe’s energy crunch has resulted in higher costs for consumers and threatens to derail the continent’s economic recovery.
Manufacturing hubs across China have slowed the production of vital goods due to power outages resulting from Beijing’s ecological agenda and rising coal prices.
The situation has already led to shortages in the global supply of Chinese goods, from tech and electronics to toys and clothing. This sows fear among the country’s major exporters, especially ahead of winter, which could disrupt production further.
RT’s Boom Bust sorts through the factors that led to China’s energy crisis and looks at how the situation may impact the global economy.
Some 600 United Airlines employees face dismissal after failing to comply with the company’s Covid-19 vaccination policy.
“This was an incredibly difficult decision but keeping our team safe has always been our first priority,” the Chicago-based airline’s chief executive Scott Kirby and president Brett Hart said in a memo to employees.
The company’s 67,000 US employees were ordered to provide proof of vaccination by last Monday. While the majority complied, 593 workers refused to be jabbed and failed to apply for the exemption on religious or medical grounds which the firm set as mandatory in the event of failing to vaccinate.
“Our rationale for requiring the vaccine for all United’s US-based employees was simple – to keep our people safe – and the truth is this: everyone is safer when everyone is vaccinated, and vaccine requirements work,” United said in the memo.
The company, however, will allow employees to keep their jobs if they have been vaccinated but failed to submit proof by the deadline, or if they will be jabbed before the formal decision on the dismissals comes through. This means unvaccinated workers have several weeks or even months under the union’s current dismissal rules to undergo inoculation if they wish to stay.
The airline announced earlier this month it would put employees who are exempt from the vaccine mandate on unpaid or medical leave from October 2. The plan was later scrapped after a lawsuit filed by six employees appealed the decision. Some 2,000 employees have so far requested the exemption.
United was the first US airline to impose a Covid-19 vaccine mandate on its staff in early August. Other US airlines have been uneager to follow suit, but moved to end pay protections for unvaccinated employees who test positive for the virus. Georgia-based Delta Airlines slapped a $200 monthly health insurance surcharge on staff who haven’t been vaccinated.
United is the fourth-largest airline by the number of passengers carried in the US, but has the second-largest fleet and serves the most destinations, according to pre-pandemic statistics. Like many other airlines, however, it was hit hard by pandemic-induced travel restrictions, having to furlough some 36,000 employees at the height of the crisis last year.
