Progressives dig in as Pelosi tries to save key vote

Progressive leaders on Tuesday declared that a majority of their 100-member caucus still plans to tank President Joe Biden’s infrastructure bill this week without a firm commitment that party leaders can finish their broader social spending package.

And now they have a key ally across the Capitol: Sen. Bernie Sanders.

“I hope that if there is no agreement here in the Senate, we’ve got to maintain the dual track and it should be defeated,” Sanders (I-Vt.) said Tuesday, following up his remarks with tweets urging House progressives to vote against the infrastructure bill sans a broader agreement.

Liberal Democrats in the House are vowing to oppose the vote Thursday without key details about what the Senate’s most vocal centrists will support — information that was still not immediately anticipated after Biden’s high-stakes meetings with both Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona on Tuesday.

With just two days left for Speaker Nancy Pelosi to lock down commitments on the infrastructure bill, Democratic leaders remain far short of the votes needed for passage. And Manchin and Sinema have yet to say what maximum price tag they would support for the spending bill, the one thing top Democrats think could help unlock progressive support for the infrastructure bill.

“They need to tell us what they don’t agree with. And we need to be able to actually negotiate it,” said Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.).

Sanders’ comments cap off a day of frenetic activity in the Capitol that revealed deep divisions among key Democrats in the two chambers, just as party leaders are struggling to solve a host of critical issues, from finding enough votes for Biden’s two most important domestic bills to settling how to fund the government and avoid default.

And Democratic leaders’ problems don’t just lie with progressives.

While Sinema has been privately engaging with a group of House lawmakers — including Jayapal — Manchin has been largely mum about his support for the party’s sprawling bill with a price tag of up to $3.5 trillion. The public silence from both has been infuriating House Democrats in all corners of the caucus.

“This is a problem. This is not a negotiation. This is bickering over process,” said Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), who was one of several moderates in a closed-door meeting of the New Democrat Coalition that griped that Senate centrists are still refusing party leaders’ demands for a topline number.

While Himes said he would not oppose the Senate infrastructure bill on Thursday, he said: “I honestly don’t blame the progressives for worrying that Manchin’s number is zero. … Right now, one side has put some cards on the table, and the other side hasn’t put any.”

Progressives in the caucus say they need to see both Manchin and Sinema spell out what they’re willing to support — both for the price tag and key policy elements — in a formalized way. Without that, Jayapal told reporters she expects the vote on Thursday will need to be delayed once again because of liberal opposition.

To help offset that potential progressive rebellion, a pair of key senators who helped craft the Senate infrastructure compromise — Sinema and GOP Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio — have begun whipping some House lawmakers, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Meanwhile, Pelosi and her leadership team, while not formally whipping, are continuing to work all corners of the caucus as the hours tick down to the critical vote Thursday.

Walking into the House chamber on Tuesday, Pelosi largely brushed off Sanders’ directive to progressives.

“Everybody has to do what they have to do and I respect that,” Pelosi said. “We’re doing our work.”

But it was clear that many House Democrats, including key leadership allies, remain deeply unhappy with the process so far, particularly after Pelosi officially decoupled the two domestic bills this week, reversing a monthslong vow to progressives to pass infrastructure and the broader spending bill in tandem.

“My father told me when I was growing up, there’s a fine line between a good guy and a goddamn fool. I don’t want to be rolled,” said Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.). “I think a lot of us want to make sure we have an assurance that, in fact, there’s going to be a reconciliation bill.”

“I’m not a yes until we have assurances that it will pass,” echoed Rep. Chuy Garcia (D-Ill.).

Pelosi and her leadership team — as well as progressive and moderate leaders — have been working furiously behind the scenes on a compromise that all corners of the party can back. They hope a so-called “framework” can be enough for Jayapal and her caucus to back the vote Thursday, helping leadership and the White House avoid a humiliating defeat.

An agreement with Manchin and Sinema would be “critical” to resolving the deadlock in the House, said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.).

“I think it would give confidence to a lot of people in the House and around the country,” Hoyer told reporters Tuesday, reiterating that the House wouldn’t take up any social spending plan that the Senate couldn’t support. “What we’re hoping this week is to get a number and a framework.”

Jayapal released a statement reiterating the CPC’s position on Tuesday afternoon after an hour-long meeting with the progressive caucus, which was held the day after Pelosi stunned many liberals by announcing Monday night that the House would proceed with an infrastructure vote even as the party’s broader spending bill slipped past this week.

During the CPC’s call on Tuesday, not a single progressive member spoke up to say they would support the vote without the broader spending bill — staying firm on the caucus’s earlier position, according to people listening.

Democrats expect an intense whipping operation from Pelosi and her leadership team for the infrastructure plan, but it hasn’t formally begun yet. Many lawmakers have pegged their hopes on Biden nailing down a commitment from Manchin, thereby prying more progressive commitments loose.

House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn told reporters on Tuesday afternoon he is “not ready” to start the vote-counting process.

“I don’t know when that is but I think I’ll feel it,” he added.

Jayapal continues to maintain that dozens of progressives — as many as 60 — would be willing to block Biden’s infrastructure bill Thursday. She suggested that number could even be growing on Tuesday afternoon, with the Senate’s centrists refusing to negotiate.

But there are others within the caucus who say they can’t go that far with the president’s agenda on the line.

“I’ve come to the conclusion that keeping things moving helps us, even though it’s got some risks that some folks will say, ‘Hey I got what I want, I won’t keep going,’” said Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.).

Biden opposes changing Senate rules to raise debt limit

The White House said Tuesday that President Joe Biden opposes changing the filibuster to suspend or raise the debt ceiling, closing off a break-the-glass option to avoid financial calamity.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki confirmed that Biden’s position on reforming the filibuster has not changed as Democrats search for options to deal with the approaching debt ceiling deadline amid persistent refusal from Senate Republicans to step in and help. Earlier in the day, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned congressional leaders that her department could run out of money by Oct. 18, triggering a disastrous default on the government’s debt that would cripple the entire U.S. economy.

“At that point, we expect Treasury would be left with very limited resources that would be depleted quickly,” the secretary wrote. “It is uncertain whether we could continue to meet all the nation’s commitments after that date.”

Questions about how the debt ceiling will be raised have been festering for months. But they have taken on increasing urgency as Senate Republicans continue to filibuster a debt increase even as the deadline for default approaches.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has said that Democrats should raise the ceiling alone, but he has also closed off all avenues for them to do so, save one: an amended reconciliation bill that would occupy a fair chunk of Senate floor time before Democrats could pass it by party-line vote.

Democrats in Congress are at odds over whether they have enough time to do that and the next steps forward. The party tried to pass a debt limit hike alongside a measure to fund the government last week. But that was filibustered by Senate Republicans.

On Tuesday, Democrats sought unanimous consent to pass a debt ceiling hike by a simple majority vote. Republicans objected to that too, further angering White House officials who were already chafing at their refusal to fall in line on a vote they’ve been trying to portray as almost pro forma.

Biden has coordinated his approach with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, but has publicly deferred to the congressional leaders on how to maneuver out of the jam. On Monday evening, they discussed possibly raising the debt ceiling through budget reconciliation, something White House officials had been saying they were loath to do.

One other option: The Senate could vote to change their own rules so that a bill that raises or suspends the debt limit is not subject to a filibuster. Lawmakers have made similar rules changes for the confirmation of judicial nominees and Cabinet officials. But it would require all 50 Democrats to support such a measure as well as Vice President Kamala Harris’ sign off. Biden’s opposition to such a change would effectively doom it.

For now, Republicans, who argue they want to see the debt ceiling raised — and believe it will get done, just not by them — contend Democrats have had weeks to prepare to go it alone. GOP leaders also broadened their political and process argument, suggesting that if Democrats are comfortable using reconciliation to pass a massive social spending bill on their own, they should do the same on the debt ceiling.

“We obviously wanted to do this in a bipartisan fashion,” Psaki told reporters Tuesday. “It’s also our hope that if Sen. McConnell isn’t going to help us avoid a default and a shutdown, at least he’ll get out of the way and let Democrats do it alone.”

Biden bets it all on unlocking the Manchinema puzzle

Joe Biden knows the way to progressives’ hearts but he’s still trying to figure out what makes Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema tick.

Between now and Thursday, the White House is devoting all of its energy to sketching out a framework for a social spending and climate package upon which the factions of the Democratic party can agree. Inside the West Wing, the belief is that it all begins with nailing down the two centrist Senate Democrats on what they can live with in the president’s $3.5 trillion plan, in the hopes that their support will clear a path to pass both that bill and the infrastructure proposal waiting for a vote in the House.

Biden’s game plan: Get an agreement framework from Manchin and Sinema soon so he can show progressives there is a path forward on reconciliation. The White House is hoping such a framework can convince progressives to then back the bipartisan infrastructure bill, even if it means the vote on reconciliation comes later. Key to that is a commitment from the president and Democratic leadership that they would push through a social spending plan before year’s end, two people familiar with the White House’s thinking said.

It’s a gamble. House progressives have pledged to tank the infrastructure bill unless the president’s proposal to reshape the social safety net passes first. Rather than whipping them to fall in line, the White House is betting it can move them to a “yes” vote by getting clear answers from the moderate West Virginia and Arizona senators — two of the party’s most unpredictable members.

“It’s really hard for the White House to issue anything when you have members of the caucus who won’t say what it wants,” one of the people familiar with the White House thinking said. “You can’t start coming up with a bill when you don’t know what the number is.”

A White House adviser insisted Biden, who canceled a scheduled trip to Chicago to help forge an agreement on the Hill, is also speaking regularly with progressives in Congress and is in constant contact with leadership in both chambers. But Biden and his team have put their primary focus on wooing moderates who aren’t in love with the reconciliation piece of the president’s package, which boosts elder and child care, expands Medicare coverage and fights climate change.

The White House adviser said the president is working through the positions that different centrist and progressive members have staked out. On Tuesday alone, Sinema visited the White House three times, meeting with Biden and his staff at various times throughout the day. Manchin had a meeting as well.

Though Sinema reiterated to Biden that she’s still not ready to support the bill, one of the people familiar with White House thinking said some progress was made overall on Tuesday and that the meetings with Sinema were productive. The White House adviser characterized the president’s meeting with Manchin as productive, covering climate change and other aspects of the package involving families.

And though Biden has been criticized by some Democrats for not paying more attention to the House, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) defended the White House’s focus on the Senate holdouts.

”If I were over there, that’s what I’d be doing,” said Cleaver. “The House even though it’s seemingly unruly all the time, we generally will come together over here. But the Senate is frightening.”

“If we fail, Joe Biden and his administration is in jeopardy because he campaigned on this and people voted for him,” Cleaver added as a warning to his colleagues.

As the president works the Senate, administration officials are reassuring progressive House members that Biden wants both bills to pass and that the White House is focused on “the 5 percent of Democrats in Congress who are not on board with both bills,” said a progressive source familiar with the White House’s conversations.

The White House has told House progressives that one reason they’ve been talking to them less is that they’re in “the same place,” the source added.

When pressed on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s decision to move forward with a vote on the infrastructure bill, which would effectively decouple it from the reconciliation package, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that the president trusts Pelosi.

“We are working in lockstep to get both of those pieces of legislation done,” said Psaki. “One is absolutely not being dropped. Anyone who thinks that, that’s not true or accurate.”

Psaki also defended Biden’s efforts to pass his agenda, saying the “president is playing his role.”

Still, multiple Democratic sources expressed frustration about the state of affairs among Democrats on Capitol Hill. As Thursday’s infrastructure vote approaches, it seems likely that the simmering tensions within the party could worsen, absent some breakthrough.

One top progressive operative said, tongue firmly in cheek, that if the infrastructure bill were to pass on Thursday, “President Manchin, Majority Leader Sinema and Speaker [Josh] Gottheimer will have to make some tough decisions about which corporate lobbyists win or lose.” A moderate House Democrat, meanwhile, warned that any delay on the Senate-passed infrastructure bill would make the party “look even more incompetent.”

Others, however, were able to summon some optimism amid the fear of failure.

“That’s the ace in the hole that Joe has: He knows Democrats know that it has to pass,” said former Sen. Max Baucus, a close ally of Biden’s, adding that the president shouldn’t get bogged down in the sequencing of the bills. “If it does not pass, it’ll severely damage his presidency.”