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Germany has voted, and the big remaining questions are what the makeup of the next governing coalition will be and who will succeed Angela Merkel. As chancellor for a record 16 years, Merkel helped guide Germany and the European Union through the financial crisis, the influx of migrants in 2015, Brexit and four years of transatlantic estrangement under Donald Trump.

Merkel’s successor remains unknown, though the Social Democrats’ Olaf Scholz appears the likeliest bet right now. But even with the chancellorship and the coalition up for grabs, the results provide some important clues about the future of Germany’s foreign policy. The transatlantic defense alliance is likely to encounter some trouble in the coming years, but more cooperation on new challenges like China might be on the menu.

In the United States, supporters of the traditional transatlantic relationship, centered on NATO, may be disappointed by the coalition that is likely to emerge. But for those interested in a new transatlantic alliance, focused on the United States and Europe countering China together, the outcome could be good news. The two smaller parties that will make or break any German coalition — the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) — are inclined toward a stronger stance against China, which Germany under Merkel’s “Grand Coalition” of Christian Democrats (CDU) and Social Democrats (SDP) was more hesitant to take. Whatever the makeup of the new coalition, expect a livelier debate in post-Merkel Germany about taking a tougher line on China.

The coalition will most likely be made up of three parties — something Germany hasn’t seen since the 1950s. With the Greens and the FDP definitely included thanks to strong performances on Sunday, what’s unclear is which party will lead the government. The most likely outcome is a “traffic-light” coalition (so named because of the signature colors of the three parties that would comprise it) led by Scholz’s SPD, Sunday’s narrow winner, with the Greens and the FDP as partners. The “Jamaica” coalition (whose three parties’ colors resemble the black, green and yellow Jamaican flag) would be the same, except led by the CDU; this combination is less likely because of the CDU’s poor showing. The Greens and the FDP, therefore, have significant maneuvering room as the SPD and CDU jostle to get them on their side.

Merkel’s CDU left last night’s elections with its worst result ever, coming in second with only 24.1 percent of the votes. This makes it unlikely to lead the next government, which is bad news for supporters of the traditional transatlantic alliance. A CDU-led government would have largely guaranteed the continuation of the old-style U.S.-European relationship, centered around NATO and relying on German participation in collective defense and political arrangements. The CDU sees itself as the party of the Bundeswehr (Germany’s military) and supports NATO’s goal of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense.

The SPD, on the other hand, is much less explicit on this, noting more cryptically in its election manifesto that “only with a well-equipped and modern Bundeswehr can we fulfil our tasks as a reliable partner in Europe and NATO.” The Greens, even more outspoken, reject the 2 percent goal completely. Germany has long presented difficulties for traditional defenders of NATO because of its struggles to meet military spending targets — something that will likely continue under a center-left coalition.

Most notably, an SPD-led “traffic-light” coalition would be more skeptical of the longstanding nuclear-sharing arrangement between the United States and Germany. The next German government will be tasked with a critical decision: whether to replace the country’s aging Tornado aircraft, which are certified to carry U,S. nuclear bombs and ensure Germany’s participation in NATO’s nuclear-sharing program. The U.S., unsurprisingly, has long been pushing for Germany to replace the Tornados, and a failure to do so would be a major blow to the traditional transatlantic setup. But nuclear weapons are extremely unpopular in Germany. With the aircraft scheduled to be retired in 2024, there is little time to find a replacement. If none is procured, there is a real danger that Germany sleepwalks out of nuclear sharing. This would call into question NATO’s backbone — its nuclear umbrella.

The CDU is the only party in the upcoming coalition talks that explicitly supports nuclear sharing. The SPD, FDP and Greens instead emphasize the long-term goal of abolishing nuclear weapons. A CDU-led Jamaica government would likely move to acquire new aircraft, but an SPD-led government might not.

On China, however, a traffic-light government could be more outspoken in a way that aligns with the tougher stance the United States has been taking. All German parties have over the last few years readjusted their view of China, and this process is ongoing. But under Merkel, much to the U.S.’s dismay, Germany did not take especially strong positions on China, partly due to economic concerns and partly due to a lack of urgency on the matter.

The SPD itself is not considerably more hawkish on China than the CDU. However, the two smaller parties that performed historically well Sunday — the Greens and FDP — take a more critical stance towards China, as well as Russia. Both parties emphasize human rights and international law, and support grassroot democracy movements. And while they seem to guaranteed to be part of either coalition, they could get more of a voice if the SPD runs the government: The CDU, at least under Merkel, had a reputation for subduing its coalition partners.

It still won’t be easy for any German coalition to work more closely with the U.S. against China. Although a clear majority of Germans believes the U.S. is in a new Cold War with China, only 18 percent believe their country is part of that conflict. And in a 2019 poll, a large majority of respondents said they would prefer to remain neutral rather than align with Washington in a hypothetical Sino-American conflict.

Is the future of the U.S.-German relationship about Europe, and the traditional arrangements by which the U.S. has helped to guarantee European security? Or is it about China, and creating a more unified transatlantic position towards it?

For President Joe Biden, the ideal answer is probably “both.” But “both” may not be on offer this time round, because the transatlantic alliance is changing, and so are Germany’s politics. For those eager to see the pivot to Asia continue, the almost guaranteed inclusion of the Greens and FDP in a future government is likely good news. Although a Germany that’s more critical of China will not automatically align with the U.S. and might aim for independent European positions on the matter, it makes the discussion easier. On the other hand, the likely exclusion of the CDU from government will make it harder to maintain the longstanding defense arrangements in Germany that the transatlantic relationship has relied on.

The Biden administration, for its part, should welcome a more China-skeptic turn in Germany’s governance. But the U.S. will also need to be prepared for more difficult discussions about whether Germany wants to keep playing a strong role in NATO’s collective defense apparatus — as well as about what, exactly, a common U.S.-German approach to China will look like.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein is headed back to Washington on Tuesday evening after spending a week away in San Francisco while her husband was hospitalized.

The California Democrat’s return comes as Congress continues to look for a solution for keeping the government open and raising the debt limit ahead of Thursday’s federal funding deadline. Republicans blocked Democratic efforts on Monday — a vote Feinstein missed.

“Senator Feinstein is returning to Washington this evening after staying in San Francisco while her husband was hospitalized,” a Feinstein spokesperson said in a statement to POLITICO. “Her husband is now recovering at home.”

The Hill was the first to note Feinstein’s absence on Monday. A spokesperson said it was a “family medical emergency,” adding that the senator would have voted with Democrats on Monday.

“The senator is carefully following the vote situation in the Senate and will return to Washington as soon as possible,” Hill reporter Jordain Carney tweeted on Monday, relaying a message from Feinstein’s team.

Feinstein voted last on Sept. 14, before the Senate took several days off. She has missed all votes since the chamber reconvened on Sept. 20.

Her husband, investment banker Richard Blum, was taken to the hospital last week with an undisclosed condition, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. He was reported to have spent four or five days in intensive care.

Blum, 86, was diagnosed with lung cancer in 2016, and Feinstein had to miss the Democratic National Convention because of his treatment plan. He’s had a crippling respiratory condition since 2018, according to the Chronicle.

Feinstein, 88, is the oldest sitting senator. She was reelected to her full fifth term in 2018, even as some Democrats have pushed for her to step aside and open the door for someone younger and more progressive.

With the Senate split 50-50 between the two parties, Feinstein’s vote this week is crucial as Democrats again try to fund the government and pass President Joe Biden’s ambitious infrastructure package. The senator’s absence has so far not cost her party any legislative wins.

Colby Bermel contributed to this report.

Turkey’s controversial plan to purchase Russian defense weapons and its authoritarian regime were criticized Tuesday during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on four of President Joe Biden’s ambassador nominees.

The nominees include former Delaware Gov. Jack Markell for ambassador to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; former ambassador to Romania Mark Gitenstein for ambassador to the European Union; former Arizona Republican Sen. Jeff Flake for ambassador to Turkey; and Cindy Hensley McCain, businesswoman and widow to former Sen. John McCain, for ambassador to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization.

It’s unclear when the committee will be able to cast their votes or when there will be a full Senate vote, a Democratic aide said. The Senate has approved just two of Biden’s ambassador nominees, well behind previous presidents.

During the hearing, Flake criticized Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s purchase and test firing of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, saying “any purchase of additional Russian weapons will result in additional sanctions.”

Erdogan said in an interview with CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that he planned to purchase more of the Russian missile systems, despite objections from the United States and NATO allies.

“In the future, nobody will be able to interfere in terms of what kind of defense systems we acquire, from which country at what level,” he said. “Nobody can interfere with that. We are the only ones to make such decisions.”

Flake, who left the Senate in 2019 after one term and later endorsed Biden for president, said he will push for Erdogan to change course.

“If confirmed, I will consistently reiterate that disposing of this system is the path to removing CAATSA sanctions,” Flake said, referring to the 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act that imposes sanctions on Iran, North Korea and Russia. “I will also warn Turkey that any future purchase of Russian weapons risks triggering further CAATSA sanctions, in addition to those already imposed.”

Flake touted Turkey as an important economic partner with the U.S. and encouraged defense trade with its fellow long-time NATO member that “keep its military interoperable with NATO.” But Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), the committee chair, said he opposes arms sales to Turkey unless there is a shift in its position to purchase the S-400 missile defense systems.

“I see no arm sales going to Turkey unless there is a dramatic change around, on the S-400 and moving forward,” Menendez said.

Turkey is the U.S.’ 32nd largest goods trading partner, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, totaling $20.7 billion during 2019. And the U.S. is Turkey’s fourth-largest source of imports, totaling $10.4 billion, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.

Menendez also lambasted Turkey’s impingement on freedom of the press and aggressive crackdown on government critics.

“Erdogan’s repression is unbefitting of a democracy and unbefitting of a NATO ally. Democracies don’t jail journalists, intimidate academics, and infringe upon freedom of religion,” Menendez said. “They don’t renege on their commitments to stop violence against women and they don’t put political opponents in prison.”

Flake promised to advocate against that authoritarianism.

“I’m troubled by Ankara’s democratic backsliding, and the negative trajectory in terms of freedom of expression, freedom of association and peaceful assembly in Turkey,” Flake said. “If confirmed, I will challenge Turkey to uphold its domestic and international human rights commitments, while also pushing Turkey to live up to its status as a NATO ally.”

In a shift east of the Mediterranean, when asked for his thoughts on permitting China entry into OECD, Markey said the bar should be “incredibly high.”

“One of the core strengths of the OECD is the shared values amongst the members: commitment to democracy, commitment to a market-oriented economic system. While there may be some that see growth in OECD membership as a metric that matters, I don’t,” said Markey, stopping short of saying China should be denied membership. “I think we should have an incredibly high bar when it comes to ascension into OECD membership.”

Gitenstein, a former ambassador to Romania during the Obama administration, said he’d work to build a unified position on energy issues as a step toward involving European allies in a multilateral approach to increase pressure on the Kremlin, while also emphasizing strengthening democracy and free markets in the EU.

“One of the main reasons I talked to the president and now secretary of State about wanting this job was because I saw the power that the EU can play on anti-corruption and energy security if all the players in the EU work together, and especially if the central Eastern European countries — as I call the borderlands — which are very much the targets of this effort,” he said. “I want to work directly with them and directly with the leadership at the EU on all of these issues.”

McCain noted her focus would include the “intersection of access to water and agricultural needs” and expanding public-private partnerships to help tackle global food insecurity.

ALBANY, N.Y. — New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams is moving closer to challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul in a Democratic primary next year, saying he’ll soon be touring the state as he weighs a bid.

“We’re announcing an official exploratory committee for the governor of the state of New York,” Williams said in an interview. “And that means we’re going to take some time to run around the state, speak to some folks, open up an advisory committee, open up an account, start talking about policy.”

Williams, a popular figure in New York’s progressive circles, said his campaign isn’t about “running against anyone, it’s really about running for something.”

“We are presenting a vision of a different type of Albany. As we start to recover and renew New York, we don’t want to return back to normal because normal didn’t work for most New Yorkers,” he said. “And in order to do that … you have to make a complete change of who is there, particularly in that position [of governor], so we’re going to present that vision to the people.”

Williams ran against Hochul in a primary for lieutenant governor in 2018. She defeated him by seven points. He ran on a ticket with gubernatorial aspirant Cynthia Nixon, capturing the attention of the party’s left wing, while Hochul was backed by the state Democratic Committee’s machinery. Much of the campaign was defined by Williams hammering Hochul for her alliance with then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and Hochul attacking the him for past views on abortion and same-sex marriage that she said fell short of full-fledged support.

Williams outpolled Hochul in Brooklyn and Manhattan, but the now-governor won nearly every other county in the state.

Williams said that though he has experience outside of New York City — he pointed to his previous role heading up NYS Tenants & Neighbors, a statewide organization that fights for tenants’ rights — he will need to start earlier this time to create support networks across the state.

“A lesson learned from 2018 is that we want to begin to build a lot of infrastructure in a way that we didn’t a few years ago,” he said.

The public advocate has since increased his presence upstate, spending some of his summer fundraising and holding events on topics like gun violence with fellow progressives.

Hochul, who became New York’s first woman governor after Cuomo resigned in August, did not acknowledge a question about Williams’ candidacy while walking into the Capitol on Tuesday afternoon.

Williams is the first public official to openly prepare a primary race against Hochul. But he likely won’t be the last, as different factions and leaders attempt to rearrange New York’s political landscape in a post-Cuomo world.

The most formidable potential challenger is widely considered to be Attorney General Tish James. When asked last week about her 2022 plans, James said that she “enjoy[s] serving in the office of the New York state attorney general and it’s entirely up to the people of the state of New York.”

Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) and Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone have also been musing about a campaign. So has outgoing New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio. And there’s a long list of other names.

When asked on Tuesday, de Blasio said he’s not surprised to hear Williams may be jumping in — and suggested he’s still considering his own bid.

“I respect Jumaane Williams a lot. We have a good long history together, but we also obviously have areas we disagree,” de Blasio told reporters. The mayor said he intends to stay in public service after his term expires at the end of the year and is still weighing “the best way I can serve going forward.”

Erin Durkin contributed to this report.