Germany’s household energy costs saw the greatest rise in 2021
The cost of heating and electricity in Germany increased by 107% and 41% respectively over the past year, Der Spiegel reported, citing a spokesperson of the Check24 portal, which compares prices for goods and services in the country.
According to data, the average household in Germany had to pay €1,193 for gas and fuel oil in January 2021, with the cost rising to almost €2,472 last month. The main reason for that was the sharp rise in energy prices, the newspaper said, adding that high wholesale gas prices have affected end-user prices.
The price for 5,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity hit a record high of €2,130 in January 2022. That is 41% higher than in the same month last year, Der Spiegel wrote.
According to the Check24 spokesperson, the dramatic rise was the result of the increased cost of generating electricity from coal and gas power plants, as well as a decline in production of renewable energy and higher domestic demand.
European countries haven’t been boosting purchases of Russian gas beyond existing contracts despite energy crisis
Gazprom has resumed gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine, booking 109 million cubic meters of daily pipeline capacity, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. Under the five-year contract, which expires in 2024, the company is expected to deliver 40 billion cubic meters of gas per year to Europe via Ukraine. The news triggered a long-anticipated decline in gas prices, with March futures dropping below $900 per thousand cubic meters.
January sales of Russian natural gas outside the former Soviet Union saw a massive drop of 41.3% year-on-year, while the country’s overall production has increased, Russian energy major Gazprom reported on Tuesday.
European inventory levels have reportedly sunk to historic lows over the past several months, sending energy prices in the region soaring, while some EU officials are accusing Gazprom of deliberately withholding supplies. However, Gazprom says additional supplies were not booked before February 2.
“The Company’s gas deliveries are carried out as requested by consumers in full compliance with contractual obligations,” Gazprom said in a press release.
Gazprom said earlier this month it hadn’t booked any monthly transit capacity via the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline for February. However, the company may still book the route via daily auctions.
The pipeline, which usually accounts for about 15% of Russia’s annual gas exports to Europe and Turkey, has been working in reverse mode since late December, putting additional pressure on European energy prices.
Meanwhile, working gas inventories in Europe’s underground gas storage facilities were lagging behind last year’s level by 27.2% as of January 30, Gazprom said on Tuesday, citing data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.
Over 81% of the fuel delivered during the summer is already pumped out from the facilities, according to the company, while “the total amount of working gas inventories in European UGS facilities was as low as 38.1 billion cubic meters on January 30, falling by 2.7 billion cubic meters below the historical minimum for this date.”
Separately, data of the booking platform seen by Reuters confirmed that Gazprom was set to resume westbound gas flows from Poland to Germany this week via the Yamal pipeline, restoring the normal flows after the route was reversed. Moreover, data from German network operator GASCADE reportedly confirmed the expectations for renewal of the westbound flows for eight hours initially.
Brussels and Washington have repeatedly raised concerns over potential disruptions in Russian energy supplies in response to sanctions the US and its allies are threatening to impose on the country in the event of a military assault on Ukraine. The Russian government denies having plans to invade the neighboring state, accusing the West of ramping up tensions through its provocative rhetoric.
European officials have protracted the certification of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which could have alleviated the energy shortages on the continent.
US Commerce Department data shows the nation’s economy grew by 5.7% last year – its best performance since 1984 – as it roared back from the pandemic lockdowns. However, analysts expect the growth to slow this year, as the government scales back stimulus spending and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Other risks include high inflation and threats from new Covid variants, including Omicron, they say.
“The economy is decelerating and downshifting,” the chief economist for the Americas at Natixis and ex-chief economist for the National Economic Council under former President Donald Trump, Joseph LaVorgna, told CNBC. “It’s not a recession, but it will be if the Fed tries to get too aggressive,” he said.
Statistics show that GDP surged by an impressive 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021, while the measure of all goods and services produced in the country grew 5.7% on an annualized basis.
Much of that end-of-year gain was fueled by an inventory rebuild that “contributed 4.9 percentage points to the total, led primarily by the auto sector,” the chief international economist at ING, James Knightley, was quoted as saying by CNN. Inventories were responsible for almost all of the third quarter’s 2.3% GDP increase.
“Given ongoing supply disruption we can’t count on this continuing to support growth in coming quarters,” Knightley said.
Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing survey showed that the pace of new orders, while still showing gains, is slowing substantially.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has trimmed its first-quarter GDP outlook to 0.5%, down from 2%. The bank also cut its full-year view to 3.2%, well below the current 3.8% consensus.
“Growth is likely to slow abruptly in 2022, as fiscal support fades and, in the near term, virus spread weighs on services spending and prolongs supply chain disruptions,” Goldman economist Ronnie Walker said in a note for clients seen by CNBC. “Q1 growth is likely to be particularly soft because the fiscal drag will be accompanied by a hit from Omicron.”
Bank of America also downgraded first-quarter GDP growth to 1% from 4%, and cut its full-year forecast to 3.6% from 4%.
EU forced to admit that price hikes are not as temporary and benign as previously said
Inflation across the Eurozone surged to 5.1% in January from 5% in the previous month, despite optimistic expectations for a sharp drop to 4.4%, data from Eurostat showed on Wednesday. Inflation is now more than twice the ECB’s 2% target.
The latest growth reportedly reflects the hottest rate of inflation across the 19 countries that have shared the euro since the records began.
Meanwhile, the single currency jumped by 0.3% to $1.13050, touching a one-week high to the US dollar, on the expectation that the ECB would signal a faster path for policy tightening as early as Thursday.
The ECB’s Governing Council is scheduled to gather this week, with an announcement due on Thursday afternoon. The soaring cost of living in Europe is putting pressure on the regulator to tighten money printing.
The ECB is expected to decide whether to keep implementing extremely loose monetary policy or keep running against signals from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England that they are planning to launch a rapid rate hike cycle this year to tame the inflation growth.
ECB President Christine Lagarde had previously signaled that a rate hike was unlikely in 2022. Interest rates in the Eurozone are currently at historic lows, however, markets are pricing in around two hikes from the regulator this year.
Emergency supplies can’t resolve the crisis, as re-routed volumes would disrupt other regions
The latest speculation about Russia’s hypothetical invasion of Ukraine and potential sanctions pledged by Western countries in response has raised serious concerns about energy security in Europe, which has already been shaken by the pandemic and the Covid-related supply crunch stretching across each and every sector of the region’s economy.
Europe is going through a severe energy crisis, with surging prices for heating and electricity placing an intolerable burden on households and businesses.
Russian gas supplies account for roughly 40% of Europe’s consumption, with any disruption of deliveries expected to aggravate the current situation and cause spikes in energy prices.
Though major energy producers like Qatar or Azerbaijan have pledged emergency gas supplies to the region, the volumes shipped by Russia are reportedly hard to replace without affecting other big consumers across the world, especially in Asia, the world’s fastest-growing market.
“Europe has no alternative to Russian gas,” BCS Global Markets Senior Analyst Ron Smith said as quoted by Bloomberg. “You would have to divert half of the LNG that Asia consumes in order to replace Gazprom PJSC. And what would that mean? That would mean massive energy shortages all across Asia, you would export Europe’s energy crisis to Asia,” the expert added.
According to Qatar’s energy minister, Saad Al-Kaabi, the volumes of gas the EU needs can’t be replaced by any one supplier unilaterally without disturbing deliveries to other regions.
The official stressed the importance of fulfilling obligations under long-term contracts with existing customers, and said strengthening European energy security would inevitably take collective efforts from a number of gas producers.
Increased competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to keep prices high, according to the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank, as cited by the agency. The researchers say that Europe would have to curb demand in case of any prolonged disruption lasting through the next two winters.
Europe currently relies on the LNG that’s been arriving on its shores, helping to ease high prices, but Asia is expected to regain its spot as a premium export market for US cargoes of the fuel as early as May, according to BloombergNEF calculations.
“This idea that ‘we will fill the gap with LNG’ – no, you can’t. It’s physically impossible to do, there’s not enough LNG in the world to do that,” Smith told the agency.
